The U.S. can win three big foreign policy victories in Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela. If we don’t, we risk major strategic defeats that will severely harm our national security.
The Trump Administration is once again actively pursuing peace talks to end the bloody Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year. But no real success is likely until we face up to certain inconvenient truths and firmly deal with them.
Vladimir Putin still thinks he can win control of Ukraine despite his summer offensive’s murderous failure to seize controlof the critical Donbas region. He’s convinced that the combination of sending several hundred thousand more troops into battle and obliterating, through air attacks, Ukraine’s energy and electricity facilities for the coming winter will create the conditions for a triumph as Russian drone and missile technology advances. Ukraine is currently very vulnerable to Russian air attacks.
There are two immediate measures we could take that would shatter Putin’s plans. One would be to allow Ukraine to use the Starlink system to target its drones inside Russia’s borders. Currently, Kyiv can use Starlink only for targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine—and has done so with deadly effect. Being able to precisely hit key targets inside Russia would be devastating to the Kremlin’s war effort. But so far, the U.S. hasn’t given Elon Musk permission to allow Kyiv to expand its use of Starlink. The second measure would be for Washington to provide Ukraine with 50 or more F-16 fighter jets to help counter Russian air offensives. Ukraine is supposed to have 79 such aircraft in the coming years but is desperately making do with 39. Supplying more F-16s wouldn’t be difficult; we have more than 800.
The likelihood of such initiatives, however, is small. Unless we disabuse Putin of his conviction that he can win, he won’t agree to anything that gets in the way of his ultimate goal: conquest.
Regarding Iran, President Trump is right that the terrorists ruling that country are reeling, but like Putin, they think they can achieve a strategic win. That’s why Iran unleashed one of its proxy terrorist militias, the Houthis, who are roiling oil markets with attacks on a key Saudi oil pipeline as well as on ships in the Red Sea. Iran’s rulers are convinced that the U.S.—for domestic political reasons—hasn’t the stomach to do what’s necessary to bring down their odious regime, or even just destroy the Houthis. Negotiations will end up the way they always do with this foul government—no agreements or worthless agreements. They may string along any talks long enough to get sufficient relief to survive. They can await a new president who might ease up, especially if Tehran’s lying leaders pretend to abandon their nuclear aspirations.
The only way to get real peace is to end the existing regime. And the best way to make that happen is to resume the full-scale military operations we prematurely ended in April. That as well as the increasing financial strangulation the U.S. is undertaking will create the conditions for deep popular discontent and growing dissidence in the military, which will bring down the government.
As for Venezuela, we made the mistake after snatching dictator Nicolás Maduro in January of not moving quickly to restore democracy. Only a democratic government can achieve the legitimacy and authority to create conditions for the massive infusion of foreign investment needed to realize the immense potential of Venezuela’s oil fields. Agreements with the current illegitimate dictatorship will not long stand.
Our adversaries—and, indeed, the world—think the U.S. is in strategic decline. Victories in Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela would decisively reverse this dangerous perception.